The Morning After, Some Clarity

Late last night, I received word that recently signed Dan Henderson would be debuting in a title match against Rampage. While I personally think it's a little early to be giving Henderson a title shot, it will be good for Liddell to get a win or two under his belt first, and let's be honest, no one wants to see Ortiz make a run at Rampage.

Henderson and Rampage will be a good fight, and relatively even, Rampage having lost twice to Wanderlei Silva and Henderson having split their fights. Both like to throw bombs and it should be one of the more exciting bouts of the year. We can safely assume that Liddell will get to fight the winner, and since we can do this, it becomes easier to predict the direction of the Light heavyweight title over the next year. I am assuming that Tito is done getting title shots (considering I think he'll get mopped up by Rashad Evans at UFC 73) and I don't think Shogun is UFC-ready (he likes to stomp his opponents' heads when they are down -- a clear rule violation).

We can assume that the winner of the Rampage-Henderson fight will get Liddell. If Rampage wins, two things can happen in the next fight (obviously): Liddell wins the rematch or he doesn't. If Liddell beats Rampage, there would most likely be a third fight between the two to settle the feud once and for all. Whoever wins the third fight would most likely then face Henderson, Shogun, or possibly Wanderlei Silva if he were signed by then. If Rampage wins his second UFC fight against Liddell, that would end their feud and Henderson would probably get a rematch. Rampage would essentially have control over the division as Liddell used to...that is, until Wanderlei is signed. To recap, if Rampage wins, the progression of fights should look something like this:

Rampage-Henderson
Rampage-Liddell II
Rampage-Liddell III (if Liddell wins above fight) or Rampage-Henderson II (if Liddell doesn't)

If Henderson wins the initial fight, he will most likely get Liddell. If Liddell is able to beat Henderson, Rampage would then probably get his title shot at that point. If Rampage then beat Liddell, the Rampage-Liddell feud would be done and Henderson would get another shot at Rampage (whom he would have previously beaten). If Henderson beat Liddell after beating Rampage, he would have little else to prove to either man, although Rampage would probably receive a courtesy rematch. To recap, if Henderson wins, the progression of fights should look something like this:

Rampage-Henderson
Henderson-Liddell
Henderson-Rampage II (if Liddell loses above fight) or Rampage-Liddell II (if Liddell wins above)

The best case scenario for the UFC, is for either Rampage or Liddell to keep winning. Having Henderson win fights with the potential of dropping them later could create an unsolvable round robin that you can see beginning to form in the Henderson scenarios. Rampage's progressions are much simpler and actually provide for some sort of temporary closure to the Light heavyweight division. Now, if Wanderlei Silva is signed...we might never have a dynastic champion again.

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