Upcoming UFC Event Odds

It is well known that Las Vegas will put odds on just about anything, and so, it's no surprise that that within minutes of an any announcement, money lines are up. And while we won't explain how to read these lines (see FIGHT Magazine's Performify Foster for that), but we will tell you where we think the true values lie.

UFC 79:
Odds have changed away from their initial favoritism for Liddell, now favoring Silva at -130 or around 56%. Both have lost their last two fights and either could knock the other one out in the first round. Pick your favorite here and let the dice roll. I'll be staying away from this action, though...just a little too unpredictable for my blood. If you do want to bet on this one, however, you might want to go with Liddell. He'll win you more on what is being called an even match up and he's being picked to win by just about every professional fighter I talk to (Sean Sherk and Melvin Guillard included).

St. Pierre holds a sizable edge over Hughes (-240 to +190), but this seems accurate, considering the ease in which the former disposed of the latter in their previous battle. Take St. Pierre here. He's back from the Serra fight, his head is in order, and he's ALWAYS in shape. His -240 line is a representation of a 70% chance of winning this fight. I'd put him around 75-80%, making this a great value bet.

Now, for my money bet of the night. Machida holds the edge (-130) over Sokoudjou (even), but Sokoudjou is the more tested fighter. Yes, Machida has fought twice since Sokoudjou's last win in April, but that win was the second of two huge victories. Sokoudjou is simply the better fighter here and he's being given an underdogs line. Jump on this.

UFC 80:
Penn has St. Pierre-like odds in this one, holding a -260 advantage over Joe Stevenson (+200). Stevenson is good, but he's never seen anything like BJ Penn. Expect Penn to arrive early and hard for this title fight, showing why many consider him the best pound for pound fighter in the world.

UFC 81:
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira holds a large, undeserved lead over Tim Sylvia in the early betting (-250 to +200). Considering that Sylvia is rebounding from a big win over Brandon Vera, he's the top HW in the UFC (at least in my book). Couture is out, Cro Cop sucks, and Nogueira is untested. If I were forced to bet, I'd take Sylvia who I think will be surprisingly ready and in shape. He won't go down to the mat or anywhere near Nogueira's playground. He should, however, out strike the Brazilian to a decision win. The odds makers have only given him a 33% chance of winning, which I feel is too low for the veteran.

UFC 82:
Anderson Silva (-140) holds a small lead over Dan Henderson (+110). It's tough to call this one, as Silva is dominant and unpredictable, while Henderson hasn't been seen at this weight in quite some time. It's easy to quickly call this one for Silva, but we must not forget the ease in which Henderson tore through Wanderlei earlier this year. He's still one of the best Light Heavyweights, Middleweights, and P4Ps in the world. I'll probably put some money down on Anderson, but I'll be nervous until The Spider's hand is raised. He's been given a 58% chance of winning the fight, which is a little low for the man who has single-handedly dismantled the rest of the division.