Sunday, February 3, 2008

UFC 81 Results

Nogueira shocked Sylvia in a wild one and Mir came back to beat Lesnar in a wild night of submissions.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira def. Tim Sylvia via submission (guillotine choke) — Round 3, 1:28

Frank Mir def. Brock Lesnar via submission (knee bar) — Round 1, 1:30

Nate Marquardt def. Jeremy Horn via submission (guillotine choke) — Round 2, 1:37

Ricardo Almeida def. Rob Yundt via submission (guillotine choke) — Round 1, 1:08

Tyson Griffin def. Gleison Tibau via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Chris Lytle def. Kyle Bradley via KO (strikes) — Round 1, 0:33

Tim Boetsch def. David Heath via TKO (strikes) — Round 1, 4:52

Marvin Eastman def. Terry Martin via unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

Rob Emerson def. Keita Nakamura via split decision (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)

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Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Horn To Take Over For Injured Leites

The UFC didn't say much about the switch of Jeremy Horn for Thales Leites, but the fact that it took them just a day to find a replacement shows their confidence in Horn and their goal of getting Nate Marquardt on television.

Horn, for the MMA neophyte, is one of the most experienced fighters and trainers in the sport. He's fought over 100 fights, holding wins against the likes of Chuck Liddell, Forrest Griffin, and Vernon White. Recently, Horn's had some trouble against quality opponents, but similar to Ken Shamrock or Royce Gracie, he'll always be a dangerous fighter.

Horn has received two title opportunities during his storied career -- both of which he lost.

UFC 81 is scheduled for Saturday, February 2nd at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, NV.

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Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Upcoming UFC Event Odds

It is well known that Las Vegas will put odds on just about anything, and so, it's no surprise that that within minutes of an any announcement, money lines are up. And while we won't explain how to read these lines (see FIGHT Magazine's Performify Foster for that), but we will tell you where we think the true values lie.

UFC 79:
Odds have changed away from their initial favoritism for Liddell, now favoring Silva at -130 or around 56%. Both have lost their last two fights and either could knock the other one out in the first round. Pick your favorite here and let the dice roll. I'll be staying away from this action, though...just a little too unpredictable for my blood. If you do want to bet on this one, however, you might want to go with Liddell. He'll win you more on what is being called an even match up and he's being picked to win by just about every professional fighter I talk to (Sean Sherk and Melvin Guillard included).

St. Pierre holds a sizable edge over Hughes (-240 to +190), but this seems accurate, considering the ease in which the former disposed of the latter in their previous battle. Take St. Pierre here. He's back from the Serra fight, his head is in order, and he's ALWAYS in shape. His -240 line is a representation of a 70% chance of winning this fight. I'd put him around 75-80%, making this a great value bet.

Now, for my money bet of the night. Machida holds the edge (-130) over Sokoudjou (even), but Sokoudjou is the more tested fighter. Yes, Machida has fought twice since Sokoudjou's last win in April, but that win was the second of two huge victories. Sokoudjou is simply the better fighter here and he's being given an underdogs line. Jump on this.

UFC 80:
Penn has St. Pierre-like odds in this one, holding a -260 advantage over Joe Stevenson (+200). Stevenson is good, but he's never seen anything like BJ Penn. Expect Penn to arrive early and hard for this title fight, showing why many consider him the best pound for pound fighter in the world.

UFC 81:
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira holds a large, undeserved lead over Tim Sylvia in the early betting (-250 to +200). Considering that Sylvia is rebounding from a big win over Brandon Vera, he's the top HW in the UFC (at least in my book). Couture is out, Cro Cop sucks, and Nogueira is untested. If I were forced to bet, I'd take Sylvia who I think will be surprisingly ready and in shape. He won't go down to the mat or anywhere near Nogueira's playground. He should, however, out strike the Brazilian to a decision win. The odds makers have only given him a 33% chance of winning, which I feel is too low for the veteran.

UFC 82:
Anderson Silva (-140) holds a small lead over Dan Henderson (+110). It's tough to call this one, as Silva is dominant and unpredictable, while Henderson hasn't been seen at this weight in quite some time. It's easy to quickly call this one for Silva, but we must not forget the ease in which Henderson tore through Wanderlei earlier this year. He's still one of the best Light Heavyweights, Middleweights, and P4Ps in the world. I'll probably put some money down on Anderson, but I'll be nervous until The Spider's hand is raised. He's been given a 58% chance of winning the fight, which is a little low for the man who has single-handedly dismantled the rest of the division.

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Tuesday, October 9, 2007

Nogueira-Kongo Bumped To Early 08

The winner of the Nogueira-Kongo fight is no longer in line for a title shot, as it's been bumped to early next year, but whoever leaves victorious should be guaranteed a shot down the line. Here's why:

With Sylvia-Vera now the only real HW bout in the upcoming months, it's more than expected that the winner will take on Randy Couture early next year at UFC 81 or those whereabouts. For Vera, it would be a long time coming and could represent the passing of the torch from one marketable HW to another. If Sylvia gets the shot, it would represent the rematch clause in his contract. Either way, this seems like the only viable option.

But who gets the winner of the Couture-Vera/Sylvia fight? For rest periods to coincide, the new #1 contender bout (after Sylvia-Vera) would have to take place early next year. Enter: Nogueira-Kongo. Initially scheduled to go down at UFC 79 in December, the fight has been bumped. It's not clear why, but it does provide perfect timing for both these competitors. The booking of Nogueira-Kongo at the same time of Couture's next fight means two big things, other than the fact that the winner will most likely get a shot at the gold.

For Nogueira, it means that the UFC has finally committed to pushing him. He's widely recognized as the #2 HW in the world, but due to his inability to speak English and lackluster win over Heath Herring a few months ago, fan support (and thus, Dana White support) has dwindled. This match up with Kongo, especially with its scheduled date, is a vote of confidence unlike any Nogueira has seen before.

For Kongo, it means that the dream has been realized. Following a massacre of Cro Cop, Kongo now finds himself one win away from a title shot with one of the greatest champions of all time. The UFC will be more than willing to throw it's support behind a young, jacked, charismatic Kongo. Ideally, Kongo-Vera will be the HW battle that UFC execs are looking to see blossom over the next four years.

So, we wait. But with our patience comes the reality that the UFC HW division is shaping up to be stacked after all. It's in a much different manner than was expected (no superfights between CC and Couture), but it should prove to be just as entertaining with a large group of fighters who all deserve to be there.

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