It is well known that Las Vegas will put odds on just about anything, and so, it's no surprise that that within minutes of the Liddell-Jardine announcement, money odds were up. Equally disturbing are the money odds for December's event. I wouldn't be surprised if they had odds on a Rashad Evans-Michael Bisping title fight for 5 years from now. But...since they're up, The Irish Whip will cover it.
UFC 74:
Surprisingly, odds makers have Gabriel Gonzaga (-135) as a slight favorite over Champion Randy Couture. I discussed this with Masson and he suggested that "this is what happened when you KO Cro Cop." I think he's right. Money on The Natural ranges anywhere from -105 to +120. I'd bet Couture if the money went over +120.
Georges St. Pierre is the overwhelming favorite -225, and as he should be. I expect him to destroy Koscheck (+200), but with the recent rash of upsets and St. Pierre's questionable mental readiness, I won't be betting on this fight.
UFC 75:
Rampage is a small favorite over Henderson, and this is to be expected as Liddell was on the top of the heap whereas Wandy was already coming off of a loss when he got KO'ed by Hollywood. Rampage is a -135 and Henderson's a +130, making this an essential pick 'em. It's too close to call in my book and I simply haven't seen enough of either of these guys to justify plunking down a Benjamin.
Cro Cop is a huge favorite (-325) over Cheick Kongo (+300) and this wouldn't be a bad one to take. I expect Cro Cop to rebound famously from his Gonzaga fight and dominate at UFC 75, resulting in a knockout victory. If you've got the money, put it on Cro Cop.
Michael Bisping is a nicely sized favorite (-215) over Matt Hammil (+185).
UFC 76:
Liddell is a big favorite (-280) over Jardine here, as if anyone cares. I know I don't. It's a relatively solid bet though, considering Liddell's need to rebound (see: Cro Cop). I love The Iceman, so I might bite on this money, but it's a little pricey considering the flash in which he went down last time.
Shogun is an equally big favorite (-240) over Machida (+180), but this scares me a little bit. Many publications have Shogun as their #1 Light heavyweight, but Machida isn't far behind. I fear that Shogun's odds are being inflated due to the fact that none of Machida's UFC bouts have been televised. This fight will be closer than the odds suggest...stay away!
Jon Fitch is a favorite (-155) over Diego Sanchez (+120). After his poor performance against Kos, faith in Diego is down, but I see him taking this fight.
UFC 77:
Anderson Silva is a -205 favorite against Franklin (+170), which seems about right. I don't see anything going differently although I do like Franklin and hope he wins so they need to have a rubber match. That's what I'd like...but I don't think it'll happen. Confidence in Silva is so high right now that this is an appetizing bet and one which I may have to take.
Evans and Ortiz are relatively even money again. Pick 'em. I'll be picking Ortiz because I think he'll be better prepared this time...and he wont hold the fence.
UFC 78:
Penn is a small favorite (-150) over Sherk (+125). Jump on this bet! Penn has ALL the tools to beat Sherk and he'll break them out at 78, no doubt about it. I'm guaranteeing this win for Penn right here.
UFC 79:
Hughes is an expected favorite over Serra, but at -345, it's more than any of us thought. He's a bigger favorite than St. Pierre over Koscheck or Cro Cop over Kongo. I love Hughes, and I think he'll win, but it's too much of a risk for me. Serra (+290) smells blood like none other and I'm afraid if he landed one, he'd be able to finish.
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
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4 Comments:
those are some damn interesting odds...
awesome picture too!
Very interesting...get in on that Couture action! It's the best bet on the board.
"Hughes is an expected favorite over Serra, but at -345, it's more than any of us thought. He's a bigger favorite than St. Pierre over Gonzaga or Cro Cop over Kongo."
I assume you mean a bigger favorite than St. Pierre over Kos....and I would put my money on Gonzaga...he is in Randy's head and has the same type of tools as Barnett in that he is bigger and has the skills to match the size. He will overwhelm coture. Coture even admitted that he matched up better with Cro Cop
Good catch Doug; fixing now...
As far as Gonzaga goes, I just watched a few of his old fights and boy was I unimpressed. I know he's grown and improved, but enough to beat Randy? I say not.
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